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Your Quiver | Wednesday, February 28, 2024

CIO | Nadine Terman @SolsteinCapital details what she's seeing in global financial markets.

3 Waiting Games

As we mentioned, traders are waiting for the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge coming out tomorrow, in case you are wondering what’s going on with the market…but some interesting tidbits to mention. Bitcoin broke the $60k barrier, for those of you watching and waiting. Plus, the bond steepener trade has been a flop with the Fed pause (remember GS saying this is the “easiest trade out there in rates” in its 2024 investment outlook?). Short-term yields moved up even further against longer duration yields, making folks wait longer for this trade to pay off.

Mouse Chutney


Disney and Indian co Reliance are merging their Indian businesses, Star India and Viacom18, in an $8.5bn deal. Disney is fending off Peltz’s fight for board seats and trying to find ways to become more efficient. It’s a jv in which Reliance will invest another $1.4bn for growth capital, and Disney may contribute additional assets with reg approval.

Pretty Please, Don't

Apple met with the DOJ last week, trying to convince them not to file an antitrust suit against them, per Bloomberg. The EZ is fining the co around 500mm euros because of the Spotify streaming case, per Reuters.

Also in the Crosshairs

The gov is trying to learn more about AMAT’s shipments to Chinese customers, per Bloomberg. They should talk to NVDA to find out how they are threading that needle so well.

AI Inside


Intel is expected to deliver core processors for up to 100mm AI-enabled PCs by 2025, per Nikkei. The co is working with MSFT to define exactly what that is. Eye tracking, instant translation of ASL into text, live transcription of videos, conversion of text to PPT.

Know When to Fold 'Em


Apple is walking away from its prior EV car plans and refocusing on AI. The plans were not: economic, commercial or timely. No Waymo here.

Backlash

GOOG is down (lost ~$80bn in mcap) because people are mad about its Gemini AI image generator inaccuracies/inappropriateness. The co pulled it on Mon. Bernstein had a good note out about the co and argues that its search is not dead, and mgmt should get back to building things in the dark, being patient for releases. Whatever you think about Zuck, he did cut the heck out of expenses and maneuver that ship quickly after its refocus and bloat.

Big Big Brother


China’s gov is clamping down on a popular quant strategy that contributed to market turmoil, with some funds told to stop accepting new capital or to phase out products. They want to reduce volatility/major declines—but imagine doing that here?

The 0.6%

HK is raising its income tax on the ultra-wealthy to 16%, affecting roughly 0.6% of folks. It also halted property tax plans and unveiled property market plans, per Bloomberg, because of the pressure on that segment and said they would try to get tourists back.

More Options

TJX beat estimates with a strong holiday showing. They’ve got TJ Maxx, Marshall’s and HomeGoods picking up excess inventory.

Broken Trade


Going CA Sober is like a broken trade. Daily cannabis users have a 25% higher chance of a heart attack and a 42% higher chance of a stroke. Plus, users have a higher risk of heart disease. GenZ had made the switch from alcohol but perhaps didn’t know the stats. And don’t think the gummies will save you—because alts like gummies and drinks change your heart rate, they’re not a solution. Moreover, they typically have higher potency, which is not good either.