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Your Quiver | Tuesday, November 7, 2023

CIO | Nadine Terman @SolsteinCapital details what she's seeing in global financial markets.

Bueller…? Bueller…?

Musk is looking for a volunteer for his brain surgery co Neuralink, which means someone willing to get a chunk of their skull removed by a surgeon so a large robot can insert a series of electrodes and super-thin wires into their brain. Oh, and when that’s done, the missing piece of skull, per BBG, will be replaced with a computer which will read and analyze brain activity.

A Tight Ship


The Fed is seeing tighter loan standards and weaker demand at US banks, per Bloomberg. Per BTIG, the NY Fed blog is reporting that some US banks are facing near-term funding pressures and capital shortfalls. So, no one is saying the ship is going down…but we’re in choppy waters here, folks.

Buyback Bump

GS is noting $5bn/day with 79% of the S&P in their open window period, ending 12/8/23. So, they expect continued purchasing to support markets, with those biz who are behind on their YTD purchases catching up in Nov. BofA provided a chart showing low 3Q23 buyback levels, reprinted by the Daily Chartbook.

WeDon'tWork.. Contd.

Told you last week. Bankrupt. Prepackaged. Trimming non-operational leases. Was valued in 2019 at $47bn before the pandemic. It kind of reminds me of SmarteCarte. Seemed like a steady business model until the world changed (9/11). So, sometimes the left tail happens. I guess we’ll be learning who owns the bad properties. On a related note, GS expects WFH to keep vacancy rates at 14% in 2024.

Mini-Millionaires

That’s what BBG calls folks with $1-10mm being courted by private equity folks who can’t seem to raise enough capital to satisfy their overflowing coffers. They’re offering dinners and events to court wealth managers who cater to this bunch, which is a growing slice of the US population. But know why they’re paying attention to them as well? Institutions who consumed too much private equity are now having indigestion, so don’t be the pansy if you’re in this category. They even are rolling out “Apollo Academy” and “Blackstone University”-I AM NOT JOKING-to grant credits toward professional designations such as CFP. I wonder if they teach illiquidity in those courses…

Uber OK


Revenues were up 11% y/y, but the co missed expectations on both the top and bottom lines. Gross bookings were better than expected, though, so don’t read into travel demand based on the miss. Also, the rev miss was in part due to a reclassification of how incentive spends were booked.

Wonder Why Group

Nestle plunked down $100mm into food-delivery startup Wonder Group, which basically paid for that company’s purchase of Blue Apron of $103mm. To be fair, they supposedly have high-tech kitchen equipment and prepared ingredient ideas that enable faster prep of more meal items for a target audience of hotels, cruises, stadiums, etc. Ripping out existing equipment, buying and installing new equipment, and then moving to a semi-razor/razor-blade model seems like a hard sell.

Let's Hope


Republicans are looking to pass a spending bill to avert a Nov. 18 government shutdown and may vote on it this week in the House. I don’t think I can take more shutdown headlines which run nonstop…so let’s hope they get it done.

What?

BBG says that annualized interest payments on gov debt is now over $1 trn at the end of Oct, which is roughly 16% of the entire federal budget for 2022.

Flipping the Script

Large inflows are heading into short- and long-dated UST now that folks are calling the top, per Bloomberg. Wasn’t it just weeks ago we were hearing about major shorts?

Energy Update

U.S. oil prices are down -2%, now below $80/barrel. On the positive: Saudi Arabia and Russia are extending their production cuts. On the negative: continued softness in China, the world’s former growth engine.

Pounded


UK consumer spending grew at the slowest pace in over a year, per Reuters, with soft retail spending heading into the holidays, per the FT.

In China News

China exports shrank at a faster-than-expected rate, but there were positive signs of unexpected import growth, per Bloomberg. Per the FT, Chinese businesses are moving away from US ties because of geopolitical tensions between the countries. Their markets were down hard: Hang Seng -1.65%, Shanghai -0.04%, Shenzhen -0.15%, ChiNext -0.47%, Hang Seng tech index -1.04%.