Oct payrolls increased by 150k—with 180k expected. Unemployment rose to 3.9%, versus an expected 2.8%. Ready for the Treasury rally? Well, the Jobs Report will do the job. BofA is noting the ultra-defensive allocation to cash and UST which could cause a rally.
GS is out with the call that bonds will beat cash for the 1st time since 2020. In effect, they’re calling the top on tightening—and expecting a reduction in inflation and rates.
BofA is citing central banks cutting rates, which supports GS’ thesis. Traders now are betting on the first rate cut in June 2024 versus July.
Their guidance for flat revenue due to lower demand in China is not exciting investors, per Bloomberg. Maersk fell hard after forecasting a weak shipping environment until 2026.
The FTC is going after Amazon for using illegal strategies to stay top of search results and raise prices, per Reuters. You have to admit you’re curious as to how much you may have overspent, right?
The declining maturity of the US Gov’s debt is the focus of the “beef” between Druckenmiller and Yellen. He’s questioning why the gov didn’t issue tons of longer term debt when rates were near zero. She argues that the US has one of the longest maturities ever, so he needs to calm down.
Building on the Detroit wins, the UAW is looking at Toyota and Tesla, per Reuters. Can you imagine Musk’s response?
That’s the title of a paper discussed in a Top story by BBG today. A quant unpacks immediate income versus longer-term returns for securities that use options-selling strategies and flags the risk in periods of market increases. Sometimes the strategy works (and hence the big money flows into these ETFs), and sometimes it doesn’t—and investors may not understand why.
Biden is waking up to China’s dominance in Africa, which is part of China’s almost $1trn Belt and Road infrastructure project initiative in developing countries over the past decade. The US is investing hundreds of millions of dollars alongside EZ counterparts for a total $600bn over 5 yrs in a project called the Lobito corridor (worst name ever?), to revitalize a century-old rail line linking key African mines to an Atlantic Ocean port. The goal is for the US (and the EU) to gain quicker access to materials for green energy.
While much daylight was shined on SBF and his actions during the trial, he won’t be seeing as much of it in the future. It took less than five hours for jurors to decide he needs some orange in his wardrobe after he was found guilty of 7 counts of fraud and conspiracy. That compares to 8 days for Holmes at Theranos.
