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Your Quiver | Friday, March 31, 2023

CIO | Nadine Terman @SolsteinCapital details what she's seeing in global financial markets.


Citi raised its US equities call from underweight to overweight. GS is calling for the S&P to increase more, at least through April. Open interest for S&P futures jumped as the index rose the past couple of days. The spike suggests that other institutions, such as hedge funds, are adding to their net market exposure. Other metrics of positioning have been rising concurrently. Interestingly, though, tech executives at the same time have been selling their shares—and remember, they are insiders—plus fewer have been actually buying shares, at the lowest amount in over 2 years…just before earnings season. What do they know that we don’t know? Everything.

Cashing Out

Investors transferred $60.1bn to money market funds in the week ending Wed, per EPFR data, driving a quarterly haul of $508bn, the most since the pandemic’s start.

Some Morning Stats

The fight against inflation is working. The deflator came in below expectations at 0.3% m/m. Headline is at 4.6% y/y. Plus a downward revision in last mo’s figure. Core services ex housing was down to 0.2% m/m from 0.5% m/m. Savings rate increased, and consumers spent less on durable goods.

A Little TIPSy

Investors are betting that the Fed will pause its rate hikes prematurely to backstop banks, if you’re reading through the recent inflation protection sought—with the TIPS index heading towards its best mo since July. It’s a derivative play on going long bonds/duration and assuming we’ll get rate cuts this year.

Us vs Them

The US is battling China on so many fronts. Lobbying countries like Japan to limit China’s access to chip technology. Welcoming Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen. Battling China’s Global Security Initiative. It seems that both sides are trying to innovate to write the rules of next-gen tech tools and solutions. The US is trying to control key nodes in global economic networks, and China is enhancing its domestic independence and bringing friends on its side. As ASR is pointing out, most likely we’ll see greater inefficiencies and higher inflation.

What the Wha?

I guess some investors want to show their support of Trump by investing in stocks related to him. Digital World Acquisition Corp, Phunware, and Rumble are all up.

Slumbering into Spring

We’ve got a holiday period alongside lots of spring break travel, so absent major events, we’d expect vol to be lower….and then pick up in a couple of weeks with earnings season. Moreover, the next JOBS report is on Good Friday (next Friday), when US markets are closed. Intraday ranges and the “miles driven” are down close to their floors for 2023. The VIX is <20, and volumes are down. If this lack of dynamism continues, folks can slumber into spring and then wake up for earnings season.


The Union Bank Plaza in LA sold for less than half of what was expected just a couple of years ago. It sold for $208mm in 2010 and got a $20mm renovation before being offloaded for around $105-110mm by KBS.