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Your Quiver | Monday, March 4, 2024

CIO | Nadine Terman @SolsteinCapital details what she's seeing in global financial markets.

Justified

That’s what BofA is feeling, cranking up their year-end S&P target from 5k to 5,400 per Bloomberg. GS is saying that fundamentals justify the Mag 7’s eye-popping returns, per Bloomberg, saying “this time is different.” Never a good phrase. DB pointed out that we haven’t seen this kind of run (S&P up 16 of the last 18 weeks) since 1971.

Be Patient


Bloomberg says to expect Powell to double down on the “be patient for rate cut” message.

$1.95bn

That’s the size of the EU antitrust fine against Apple for abusing its position on the distribution of music apps. Spotify cheered. Also, people paying for music cheered, as it sounds like they overpay for a decade.

The Terminator


JPM worked with corporate clients to cut manual work by a near -90% with a cashflow mgmt tool running on AI. Add those jobs to the good-bye list. The bank will charge for this, most likely, in the future.

More AI

Anthropic released Claude 3, a chatbot and a suite of AI models that supposedly is its fastest and most powerful yet. It can summarize around 200k words, versus ChatGPT at 3k.

The Heavies

Fidelity and Blackrock enjoyed 79% of total inflows into the Newborn Nine Bitcoin ETFs after their approval in Jan by the SEC.

Mission Accomplished


With eerie memories of former Prez Bush on the deck of an aircraft carrier, Kyodo is saying that Japan may think about declaring an official end to deflation.

Politician Promises

Jeremy Hunt may try to squeeze in pre-election gifts in this week’s budget, which could bring more inflation to the UK. He talked about new funding for manufacturing over the weekend, for example.

Denied

First, Musk’s pay package was struck down by a Delaware judge. He must hate the state even more now. Second, China’s Li Qiang will be the first premier in 3 decades to not hold a press briefing at the annual parliamentary meetings. So, who is going to tell the country about policy direction? When the #1 guy sidelines the #2 guy, don’t people care?

Sour Sentiment


Higher rates (for home loans, cars, credit cards, etc.) are one driver of your sour mood. Even though the economy is clicking along, you’re probably “not feeling it,” just like most everyone else. Researchers are trying to figure out why (and so is Biden’s team most likely). People aren’t stupid. It’s not whether your Chipotle burrito costs 5 or 10% more—it’s whether it costs a billion dollars with guacamole. The absolute level of costs matter to folks.