US companies added 89k jobs, the lowest level since early 2021 per ADP. Pay growth slowed as well. Underneath the hood, “fun” is hiring and “numbers” is stalled. So, investors are happy today—this argues for a Fed pause.
These two charts tell you everything about their clients’ current intentions. Peak rates and slower growth is translating into adding duration and being cautious on equities. The 30-yr mortgage rate is above 7.5% for the first time since 2000. That is a long time ago, folks.
Bloomberg reports that almost 12% of US adults reported declining incomes last month. Retailers don’t want to hear that before the holiday shopping season begins.
Everyone had better have a strategy around wealth imbalance for their portfolios… Reuters reports that unions representing 53K Las Vegas workers may strike in early Oct. Kaiser workers are launching the largest-ever US health care strike with 75k workers today; the 3-day strike could pause services for 13mm people in roughly 6 states. Ford proposed a wage increase in its latest round with the UAW to try to end the 19-day strike, per Bloomberg.
It sounds like $AMZN stopped the practice in 2019, but supposedly it was using a secret algo (codename Project Nessie) to increase prices on products while monitoring resulting behavior of competitors’ pricing on the same goods, to then determine how to react. Given that the Loch Ness Monster was a supposed stealth water beast that mauled a swimmer and dragged him underwater…good luck explaining that project title to the regulators….
Bernstein is holding its ground on Oracle $ORCL, even with the stock’s -20% decline since reporting 1Q24 earnings a few weeks back. Their call resides on the recession-benefits of the biz plus expected growth.
Both sides of the aisle are getting tired of politics these days, and now our portfolios may be frustrated as well. Bloomberg reports that McCarthy’s removal raises the odds of a government shutdown, and it may require higher spending by the gov…which is exactly what we don’t need right now, with debt (and interest) levels out of hand.