Positive Signs

Infosys (part of India’s $250bn software services industry along with Tata and Wipro) raised its rev forecast because clients are increasing their spend—its large deal wins were at a record level of $4.1bn. Spoiler alert…we’re going to have a senior exec from one of these companies on our newly launched podcast in the coming weeks. This week, we connected with industry-leader Phyllis Ferrell about Alzheimer’s research/recommendations/launches/challenges. She led Lilly’s drug development efforts for the last 15 years and now is doing Moonshots with Gates Ventures. A must-listen/watch given its impact: Apple + Spotify + YouTube

Data dump showing jobless claims creeping up. Although they increased due to auto plant shutdowns and Hurricane Beryl, ex those 2 things, they were still up, folks. High borrowing costs make biz cut expenses and pause expansion plans. Moreover, employees expect unemployment to rise, and you know they have a good tab on their own co’s. Chart from Pantheon Macro. Initial claims up from 223k to 243k, above consensus at 229k. Continuing claims up from 1,847k to 1,867k, also above consensus at 1,856k. Philly Fed manufacturing index popped.

TSMC raised its full-year rev growth projections after beating again this quarter on heated AI demand (Bloomberg, Reuters). For disclosure, we own this stock. That said, we don’t think the path is endless. But…come on, GS analyst Jim Covello…you can’t have it both ways, saying you can’t short NVDA now but should be short…eventually—without giving exact advice on how to play this. Investors have to make decisions. You had better come out with specific timing at some point…

Netflix is reporting post market close. Should be interesting if folks will keep ponying up for their content. Reuters notes that investors expect the company to have added the fewest number of sub adds in five quarters. I am ready to see that. What am I shaking my head at? The news that Meta may take a minority stake in the Ray-Ban maker EssilorLux to develop smart glasses. Zuck, do you remember smug Google Glass-holes running around Palo Alto? I do. Not a good look. That’s why they dumped that idea. Read this to remember.

The Trump bond steepener trade is taking a break, per the futures market. Spreads look like they care more about Fed policy now. There was a big open interest drop in ultra-long bond futures yesterday. Short covering in positions and steepener unwinds? Did the covid news of you-know-who have any impact? Yah, he’s fatigued too, for sure.

Yesterday’s price action sure made it seem so... August is the worst month of the year for equity flows. There are no predicted inflows in August as the capital has already been deployed for q3. 'Buyers are out of ammo and I am on the look out for outflows.' (Scott Rubner)

US shoppers spent $14.2bn during AMZN’s 48-yr Prime “Day”—up 11% y/y and in line with estimates. Reuters notes that Amazon's Prime event rung-up sales of $7.2 billion on its first day. The co captures 60% of online sales during its event versus 40% usually.

If you are an investor who likes to think about who you’re playing against, and how they play the “game”, I really enjoyed reading Cameron Crise’s Macro Man Column today on BBG…check it out.