Right now, all that matters to investors is tomorrow’s Fed meeting. So, the rest of these notes are for post-meeting use.
The OECD is making an easy call for slow growth globally, given pressure from interest rate hikes and China slow growth. They expect growth to slow to 2.7% in 2024, after only 3% growth this year. With Brent over $95, any sustaining rally in energy will certainly spook markets (and the Fed)—as traders will have to price in “higher for longer” or “even higher for longer.” GS cautioned that options markets are pricing in a 45% chance of Brent over $90 by Jan—and flagged TIPS as a potential hedge.
Instacart priced its IPO at $30/share, which is at the top of the expected range, translating to a fully-diluted valuation of ~$9.9 bn. After Arm’s IPO, will there be enough hunger for this name too? $DASH trolled its competitor by announcing multiple new grocery partners and its acceleration into the category. $AMZN also got into the mix with a new potential subscription program across grocery and healthcare. As a consumer, I’m lovin’ it.
The UAW threatened to expand its strike to other auto plants if serious progress hasn’t occurred before noon on Friday. Just one quick question we often have out here—which time zone?
Anyone else remember when it was “the year of Fixed Income” back in January? Well, Bernstein’s now calling it (again). They say it’s the right time to buy UST because the Fed is nearing its pause announcement, and they expect at least 4 rate cuts starting next year, putting a number out there—with an expected 10-yr yield as low as 2.5%.
Villeroy said that the ECB will keep rates at 4% as long as needed, but he doesn’t want to hike more. He noted the current level as a “plateau, but I won’t say anything on the length of the plateau.” EZ CPI increased by 5.2%, lower than the prior data point of 5.3%. Tomorrow we get the UK’s CPI, though, which will certainly affect the BOE’s decisions—folks are expecting a 25bps raise on Thurs.
If true, someone’s head is rolling. Cybersecurity firm Wiz said that the AI team at $MSFT accidentally exposed a large cache of private data on GitHub, which included employees’ personal computer passwords, secret keys and more than 30k internal Teams messages. This comes after a leaked email showing that $MSFT preferred to buy Nintendo and not Activision, calling it “THE prime asset for us in Gaming.” Also, though, it talks about an activist buying shares in the potential target and their supportiveness, which begs some awkward questions.
Musk says Twitter is moving to subscription fees. That’s pretty much what the blue checkmark is anyway, so I guess we’ll see what attrition is….but do we care if it is coming from bots anyway?
Per a Bernstein note, $META divisions are ordering t-shirts, getting earlier dinners back, hiring folks again, and doing things that growing, profitable tech companies in the Valley used to do before the Year of Efficiency. So, sounds like that year is over, and the Year of Holiday Parties is back.
The CEO at CBOE is out for an undisclosed personal relationship. Just like BP last week…the list goes on. The lesson is clear—you get knocked out if you keep doing this stuff.