Looks like analysts meaningfully underestimated the bottom lines but not the top lines. That’s what happens when co’s hike prices, right? C suites should be uber focused on expense reduction right now because what happens when demand is not as robust? Prices come down, hence the $5 MCD meal.To T...
Read moreA sea of red, basically. Asian stocks fell overnight, with tech stocks dropping on the back of the same in the US. Japanese shares were hit by yen strengthening. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as -1.8%, with co's like Hitachi, SK Hynix and Tencent getting dinged the most. Japan’s Nik...
Read moreIt’s hot outside today (91 degrees), and investors are wearing shorts plus looking for protection against a big market rotation away from tech, election craziness, and other events, per Reuters. Maybe they’re looking at the aggressive earnings acceleration expected by analyst for 2H24.Fall Fever...
Read moreInfosys (part of India’s $250bn software services industry along with Tata and Wipro) raised its rev forecast because clients are increasing their spend—its large deal wins were at a record level of $4.1bn. Spoiler alert…we’re going to have a senior exec from one of these companies on our ne...
Read moreEconomists are warning that there could be a growing risk to the US economy if the Fed waits too long to cut rates, per both BBG and CNBC. Basically, we’re in a game of musical chairs and need the Fed to insert more chairs into the game before the music stops.Small is BigEveryone is wondering whet...
Read moreUS markets are now pricing in odds of a ~60% probability for 3 Fed rate cuts by year-end, per BBGCurrent ThinkingBofA’s most recent fund manager survey highlighted increased investor optimism (!—my reaction), but folks are wary of geopolitics (no duh), per Reuters. Interestingly, msn reported th...
Read moreRegardless of your politics, investors saw the “Trump trade” go full speed ahead after the rally attack (e.g., USD up, UST curve steepening, bitcoin rallying), per BBG and BBG. GS is loving it—their trading unit reported numbers that were on fire.Taking It DownUS fundamental L/S he...
Read moreYou can skip this note if you were bolted to your seat yesterday watching the market…yet for those enjoying a spritz--it was the 2nd time in history since inception in 1979 that the small-cap Russell 2,000 gained 3%+ while the S&P declined on the day. Fun fact: 10/10/2008 was the other day. No...
Read moreThe core CPI (ex food and energy) was up only +0.1% m/m, which was the lowest level since Aug 2021. Y/Y it was up 3.3%, so don’t get too excited about lower prices…they are just not increasing as much. So, traders are now expecting a Sep cut by the Fed. Services prices fell for a second month, a...
Read moreAt some point, Mike Wilson from MS will be right. He’s calling for a -10% decline in the US stock market before the election. If Citi is right, then Mike will be right. Citi says take your profits in high flying AI stocks, per BBG. You’ve got Rubner and Chronert also flagging red forecasts. But ...
Read moreUS continuing jobless claims increased for a ninth straight week. Treasury yields dropped on the news as data showing further weakness in the US labor market further reinforces the case for the Fed to cut interest rates this year.Softness ContinuedWhile stocks rose and bond yields fell on the start ...
Read more.. in a few ways. Major indices opened up lower to start the day as bonds rose while traders awaited Powell's remarks and labor market data for ideas on next steps for rates. Tesla stock jolted up after its deliveries beat estimates.Jolted | Part 2.. and now that Powell's remarks are out, yields fel...
Read moreEven the Go Go’s can’t help companies this earnings season, with record high expectations that mgmt. teams will have to beat to keep investors happy. Right now, mgmt. teams are in their quiet period, so Our Lips Are Sealed.Head Over HeelsRetail investors are loving 24-hr stock trading, which is ...
Read moreOh, tech. I remember when we dated in 2000. We had a great time at the top. You were the most important sector in the S&P room. We danced. Got through Y2K together. Hung out with the Pets.com pup. Now you’re back. For different reasons, but you’re back. More concentrated than before, and with di...
Read moreBBG is reporting that options traders are betting on 300 bps of Fed rate cuts by the end of 1Q25. Not going to happen unless our economy falls off a cliff. Growth is slowing down…Guess I'll Stumble on Home to My CatsLooking for love with a tech short seller? Good luck finding one. (You’r...
Read moreEU mad. They charged MSFT with “abusive” bunding of Teams and Office. They should have charged the co with a “bad product.” (Does anyone like Teams vs ZOOM?) They’re looking for solutions to avoid breaching their antitrust rules. The EZ can ban the conduct and fine MSFT...
Read moreNVDA is the equivalent of 6’5”, blue eyes, trust fund this year… BBG is out with a piece on how the co’s sales growth is so high that even Wall Street can’t keep up. Cue the Guetta song… Shopify TargetedTarget is partnering with Shopify to expand its marketpl...
Read morePer Bloomberg, we’ve got ~$5.5trn of options expiring—the biggest in market history, driven by a record $870 bn notional in single stock options. December 2023 ($4.9 trn), was the prior record high. So, today, traders have to roll over their existing positions or start new ones.The Unthinkable (...
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