Seems like you probably are. The US economy grew at its fastest quarterly pace since 2021, the core PCE price index accelerated to a 4-mo high in Sep, and consumer spending picked up. On an inflation-adjusted basis, consumer spending was up +0.4%, per the FT and Bloomberg. So, the Fed is going to, at the minimum, have a hawkish pause coming up. With the 10-yr UST yield hopping over 5% for the 1st time in 16 years earlier in the week, the Fed will be watching how much work the market is doing that it doesn’t have to do. The ave long-term US mortgage rate rose for the 7th straight week, per the AP, so they will be mindful of current rate effects on households.
JPM CEO Dimon is going to sell $141mm worth of JPM shares starting next year. While it’s the 1st big transaction for him in the past 18 years, and so of course you’d expect him to get a bit of liquidity and diversification, timing is everything…. Maybe he’s calling the top.
Both Amazon and Intel printed a solid quarter. $AMZN rev and profit were higher than expected, per Bloomberg, with its cloud division back on track. Intel gave a positive forecast on recovering PC sales, per the FT, although its data center and AI unit missed…and isn’t that where a lot of folks are focused right now?
OK, I’m not immune either. When I saw the headline “Buy Boomers, Sell Millennials…” I didn’t even have to read the rest of the title before clicking. Basically, BofA is saying that higher interest rates benefit older folks with savings accounts, versus younger folks with debts, rents/mortgages, etc. So, think long cruises and short youth-targeted fashion.
I couldn’t resist that tag because that’s what shareholders are feeling after both Exxon and Chevron disappoint, due to weaker oil refining and chem. They cited an intl oversupply of chem from new production plants and losses from overseas refining. Both anacondas are looking to digest big M&A deals to expand oil production and lock up control of resources, which are getting shareholders excited, though. Plus the extra dividend payout from Exxon didn’t hurt. If you’re looking for value, though, BBG gave you this chart to ponder:
Chipotle beat expectations, and with a recent 3% price increase, mgmt. is saying that customers don’t care. I’m guessing that some folks are trading down, as overall eating out has gotten so expensive. They’re seeing more traffic and higher prices.
Reuters is out with a story about healthcare companies trying to calm investor fears over Wegovy/Ozempic impacts.
Businesses in the EZ are warning that the economy sucks, per Reuters. Our team expects the EZ to continue to have a tough time, on an absolute and a relative basis to other geographies. So, position accordingly.
Chinese markets popped, with the Hang Seng up +2.08%, the Shanghai Comp up +0.99%, the Shenzhen +2.14%, and ChiNext +2.88%. Industrial profits rose in Sep, per Reuters. Economists expect a potential RRR cut in the 4th quarter, per the China Securities Journal. The gov doesn’t want a continued meltdown throughout 2024 and has to act, even a bit. Japan was also up a lot, and its inflation readings rose for the 1st time in 4 mo, per the Nikkei. So, the BOJ is going to be pressured to shift even further from its YCC (yield curve control).
You’ve probably read that Swift is a billionaire now. Have to give props to these fun pics by BBG showing how much she raked in for the ERAS tour in comparison to others, and how she gained her wealth.
