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Your Quiver | Tuesday, February 20, 2024

CIO | Nadine Terman @SolsteinCapital details what she's seeing in global financial markets.

Blue Light Special

Walmart is buying Vizio for $2.3bn in order to grow its ad biz. What? Yep. Vizio is a tv maker, and Walmart sells a lot of them. They can boost ads through Vizio’s SmartCast O/S, which lets 18mm users get content in exchange for watching ads.

Probably Blocked?

Capital One has a good idea, trying to acquire Discover for $35.3bn in an all-stock deal. They’re two of the largest credit card issuers in the US, so I’m not sure how regulators are going to let this one through. Discover has a lot of deposits plus deposit-gathering infrastructure.

Kind of Crazy


AA wants you to pay more to check your bag, and a lot more if you check a second bag. Plus, you may not get frequent flyer miles if you purchase tickets through a third party. Not so customer-centric. I guess the new strategy is to lug your luggage to the gate, when they beg you to check a bag because the overhead bins will be filled, and then you get to check your bag for free and get it first when it comes off the plane.

Hollywood Kinda-Sorta Houselift


Home Depot beat on both top and bottom lines, but they still reported a 5th consecutive drop in q revs. Consumers are doing smaller home improvement projects. Mgmt is forecasting a ho-hum 2024 as well, with only 1% growth on the top line. I know I bought a cheap bag of cement a couple of weeks ago to do a little project, so it sounds like other folks are doing the same.

Cash is the New Black

Bloomberg reports that money market assets are up further in 2024 because yields are still juicy.

June is the New March


Traders are now pricing in rate cuts for June, versus March…or May… Perhaps Summers’ message that the Fed may have to raise rates pushed out the optimism. We’re not in that camp. We just think the Fed isn’t in any hurry to cut rates when the economy is kicking along ok.

Doubling Down

At the risk of looking foolish, GS raised its S&P forecast for a 2nd time. Should someone tell them they don’t have to do that in Feb? Per Bloomberg. Also, I see in my inbox today that UBS is doing the same (time to update your story, BBG). Because returns and profits are measured in nominal dollars, when there is higher inflation, like today, stock prices can go up a bit as earnings are higher.

A > B

Per the FT, bad commercial real estate loans are more than loss reserves at the US’ biggest banks.

Hot Sauce


China’s securities watchdog is saying they’ll step in to ease market concerns, per Reuters. Given all the money that came out of China, any kind of “hot sauce” could really boost equities.

Tomorrow

Nvidia reports. Everyone is watching. With NVDA, MSFT, META and AMZN contributing 60% of the S&P’s YTD rally, bulls have their fingers crossed.