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Your Quiver | Thursday, July 20, 2023

CIO | Nadine Terman @SolsteinCapital details what she's seeing in global financial markets.

Daytime Action

The S&P’s day session has been responsible for all of the market’s positive return, with overnight trading generating a small loss. UBS points out that it may be underperforming managers trying to play catch-up during the day yet warns that these investors may be fleeting if the trend reverses.

Top Line Trouble

Netflix reported solid numbers for its paid sharing plan, and the co beat on subs + profits, but it slightly missed top line numbers. The next quarter guide also reflects softness in revenue, with higher profits. Given its mega rally since last quarter’s earnings (+43%) the stock was getting punished pre-market because mgmt. didn’t deliver an overdeliver result.

The Pain Trade

The GS 50 Most Shorted basket outperformed almost everything yesterday (+3.2%) and is now up +28% since June 1st vs. the S&P +9.2% over the same period.

TSMC

The contract maker of chips for Nvidia, Apple and AMD cut its full year guidance to a decline of -10% from a previously expected slump in the low to mid single digits. Shipments were down -23% y/y. Sales for its most advanced tech declined. The results were a huge contracts to those of ASML yesterday. Bookings were way above expectations. What’s going on with TSMC? Skilled labor shortages in the US to install equipment. Continued spend on building capacity, high ramp-up costs for new tech, glut of inventory for old tech.

Crunch Time


Roughly 20% of 27mm student debt holders will have to start repayments in September at > $500 per mo, per Bloomberg.

Price [Times] Volume [Less] Costs

Tesla is learning what happens when you cut price for your products. Its gross margin fell greater than forecasted, per Bloomberg. But the company had an earnings beat, photos of the Cybertruck, and an internal projection of Dojo computing power. So, some people will find the negative, and others the positive.

Just Wait

2Q23 rev for IBM came in below expectations, but mgmt. reaffirmed its full year guidance after increasing projections for s/w growth per Reuters.

Everyone's Switching Teams

EURACTIV reports that Germany is working hard to bond with India to reduce its trade dependence with China.

Frenemies


Even with Kissinger in China, rumblings continue. China’s US ambassador warned of retaliation against the US in response to US sanctions and export controls, according to the FT.