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Your Quiver | Wednesday, October 25, 2023

CIO | Nadine Terman @SolsteinCapital details what she's seeing in global financial markets.

Haves and Have Nots | Tech Edition

The FT and Reuters have the full stories, but for your morning snack--GOOG/L beat on the top line because of Search + Other/YouTube. But Mgmt also reported higher expenses and a big cloud miss. So, now investors are rethinking their bull case—one left standing is strong ad revenues. But hearing “cloud optimization efforts” translated into stock speak = delay + headwinds. Moreover, they haven’t executed Zuck’s Year of Efficiency programs, so they may need to rethink their cost management programs. Snap actually posted a rev beat plus a positive y/y forecasted growth, although the co is dependent on just a few advertisers, so forecasting is not easy. Spotify had a solid day after bullish mgmt. commentary. They expect positive margin trends, more subscribers, higher prices, and candy canes. Microsoft posted solid Azure growth and cloud margin, and mgmt. showed confidence in monetizing AI by increased cap ex. Lots of nuggets for investors to like. But TI gave a bearish outlook, so chipmakers are down.

In the Cards

What’s going on at Visa? Solid print. Better rev guide. Per Reuters, the post-pandemic travel pop was a plus. Investors are worried that the guide is heavily back-end loaded, and given the macro environment, it seems a riskier bet. Mgmt reported growth in services which has become a bigger part of the story.

Don't You Dare


The US gov warned Nvidia to halt shipping some AI chips to China immediately, per the Nikkei. This comes on the heels of finding that China’s Semi Manuf Intl Corp used equipment from ASML to manufacture an advanced processor for a Chinese smartphone.

Property Wars

CoStar Group reduced its full year rev forecast because of the weak property market, per Reuters.

All About Rates and Rules


The ECB is meeting, and they’re facing decisions and bond markets are shaking and the economy is soft, per CNBC. Per the Telegraph, the Bank of England has a tough call with its rate decision because economists are casting doubt over the jobs data. The ECB may roll out stricter bank reserve rules, so money markets are on alert, per Bloomberg. Yep, they’re calling the top. Wall Street is calling the top in US Treasury yields after the 10-yr hit the 5% level, per Reuters. So, guess what happens if rates rise? Oh no.

Heavy Lifting


The critics are pounding on China’s need for “deep reform” and not temporary or short-term fixes, per SCMP. They note that China’s fiscal stimulus relies heavily on debt and state spending but doesn’t prioritize deeper reforms, which it needs, per Reuters.

Sun Shine

Muddy Waters is short Sunrun again. They are shining the light on renewed concerns.