NVDA’s developers GTC conference today will be one hot ticket, where CEO Huang may unveil the co’s next gen GPU. So will the Tues/Wed Fed policy meeting.
In the US, the gov is releasing a $7.3trn 2025 budget proposal that includes middle-class tax breaks and price controls funded through higher taxes rich folk. In Japan, the BOJ is getting ready for a lifetime event: abandoning its 10yr yield curve control target at its March meeting, potentially. In the EZ, the ECB is reiterating data-dependence, which translates into your waiting until summer for rate cuts. This week we’ll be getting decisions on rates for 6 of the most 10 traded currency countries.
The co is joining the S&P today after the AI server co is up 275% YTD and >1000% over the past 12 mo.
GOOG is up because Apple may build Gemini (GOOG’s AI engine) into the iPhone. Right now, GOOG pays AAPL 36% of its Safari search revenue. We have always been a fan of GOOG. Wonder what this says about AAPL’s AI development status, though. Perhaps they are just staying in their lanes. AAPL – features that operate on devices. GOOG-features delivered via cloud/Internet. Regulators would be scrambling to figure out whether this is ok or not.
EV world is a tough one to live in. Fisker is pausing production because it may have to file for bankruptcy. Maybe Apple should have just bought Rivian and Fisker and called it a day.
You know how your mortgage payment goes up, but so does your interest income on cash, when rates rise? Well, the most recent rate cycle made mortgages pop but net interest income decline. Why? More of folks’ debt is in consumer credit (vs mortgages), which moves fast to charge you more. Also, banks were cheap and didn’t give us as much on our cash.
UBS, now with CS getting digested, is certainly in the 2-big-2-fail category. Its balance sheet has $1.7bn of leverage exposure, which is 2x the GDP of Switzerland. Given that CS bit the dust, the gov is trying to figure out how to improve the skills and tools of its regulator.
It’s never too soon to plan for a disaster. Social security, according to BBG, is headed for depletion in 2033. Folks, that is really soon. People are living longer, Baby Boomers are retiring and getting their payments, birth rates are declining…Of course, payroll taxes will cover around 75% of payments, but that’s not 100%. So, politicians will probably be avoiding details on this topic for this and the next major election cycle, but most likely in the second Presidential run after this 2nd term for someone, folks will be asking questions.