US job openings declined in June to their lowest level since April 2021, per data hot off the press.
US equities are down this morning because of some tough prints. JetBlue issued a profit warning due to lower domestic demand. Pfizer cuts its topline forecast. Tesla is getting probed given consumer complaints. US Manufacturing activity contracted for the 9th straight month. Coors is having a tough time in the US. BMW warned about higher costs. DHL lowered its guidance. China’s manufacturing also contracted in July driven by notable falls in new orders, output and export orders. Also, home sales dropped the most in a year in July in China.
Everyone is talking about cash on the sidelines as the next driver of equities. Also, disinflation is getting folks excited for a rate pause, at the minimum, and they’re looking at consumer resilience, housing market improvement and expected 2H earnings recovery as a basis for jumping in and/or staying in.
The BOJ’s move to enable rates to move up to 1% could have major impacts around the world, including on US households. Their higher rates could translate into higher rates for us and pressure equities. If the Japanese bring capital back home, it has to come from somewhere. It doesn’t happen overnight (think months or years), so you haven’t seen markets freak out—yet.
The timing and depth of the UST curve inversion of the treasury may mean that we should start preparing for a recession at or around the turn of the year.
Foreign investors are returning to China’s stock market in a big way; overseas funds added a net 49 billion yuan ($6.9 billion) of mainland stocks via trading links with Hong Kong in the past 5 sessions, hoping that the gov is focused on growth initiatives.
Macau’s casino revenue gained 4,083% year on year.
Japan’s jobless rate fell to 2.5% in June, the lowest since January.
BP’s CEO says that demand for crude and OPEC+ curbs will drive strong pricing for years. He expects global demand growth to rise by more than 2mm b/d in 2023.