Jamie Dimon says that he’s “cautious about everything” when talking about risks to a soft landing. He thinks the market’s expectations are too high, especially since there’s a risk of rates staying higher for longer. He compares his bet for a soft landing (35-40%) versus the market’s (70-80%). On a related note, the NY Times flags that housing inflation will keep the Fed’s goals of reaching 2% inflation in check. A recent NFIB survey shows co’s are pushing prices higher.
Mainland China markets closed higher again to reach 3-mo highs. UBS estimates that China’s state-backed funds have bought $57 bn of stocks. EZ markets were mixed. Bitcoin is up +5% to over $57k. Yields across the curve this year are up, with the benchmark 10-yr UST on Schwab yielding over 4.3%, +40bps more than at 2023-end.
Norwegian is popping. AutoZone beat on EPS. Lowe’s beat consensus but delivered a dour outlook, projecting $12-12.30 of EPS when the Street was at over $13.
BBG is talking about the CPP’s recent deals whereby it offloaded three commercial properties at heavy discounts, including one NY redevelopment project for $1. The Canadian pension plan was at the forefront of real estate investing, and now they’re shedding Vancouver towers, a biz park in SoCal, and other properties. Alan Waxman is licking his chops at 6th St Partners, and is expanding from private credit to real estate.
Bloomberg has a story about co’s switching from debt to equity issuance because it’s cheaper these days. For everyone keeping this market party going, take note. Campari, Aston Martin, even Reddit… Buckland of Citi says that the last time equity was cheaper on a continued basis was in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s. Never a good comparison.
Today is more about Goings. Global HF’s sold tech stocks at the highest pace in nearly 8 mo, per Reuters. So, co’s are issuing equity, and HF’s are selling positions. Just sayin’ what I see. Expedia is reducing 1.5k jobs globally due to lower travel demand, per Reuters. So, now your customer service wait will be 1-2 days.
The fast fashion house is trying to figure out where it should go public. NY? US-China trade concerns. London? Large market that knows retail, but investors may question its environmental impact and other ESG factors with more scrutiny.
It’s down because Biden says a Gaza ceasefire could be in the works by Mon.
Most CEO’s aren’t looking to increase cap ex this year. Why should you care? Well, that spending turns into someone else’s revenues. It’s one data point for projecting future growth. Also, orders are coming in below shipments (which is never good). So, co’s are sending out more product than new orders they’re getting.
Hotels don’t have enough people, so travel costs are going to rise—and you probably won’t see daily housekeeping, full room service, or other services you took for granted in the last decade.
Looks like US consumers still have some room to run.
