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Your Quiver | Monday, October 30, 2023

CIO | Nadine Terman @SolsteinCapital details what she's seeing in global financial markets.

On the Ground

The US market is up this morning, as investors gauge the future ramifications of the ground invasion in Gaza. Oil is still high (>$80/barrel). Gold dropped below $2k/ounce. All eyes are on Iran, the Fed decision, and ongoing economic data releases—all during earnings season. The Fed is expected to hold rates at a 22-year high, but leave the door open for hikes, per the FT and pretty much everyone.

The Three Amigos

The UAW is now done. GM just reached a deal with the UAW. On Sat they made a deal with Stellantis. Their deal with Ford includes $8.1bn in investments, a $5k ratification bonus, and 25% compound wage increases with better profit-sharing payments. The two new deals are based on the initial deal struck.

They're Loving It


Micky D’s beat on both the top and bottom lines. Their same store sales were strong, beating estimates, because of price increases. So, you’re not crazy if you think that food is getting more expensive everywhere.

Pharmageddon

That’s what they’re calling the three-day nationwide walkout of some pharmacy staff from Walgreens and other US drugstores. Workers cite unsafe working conditions (understaffed teams, insufficient pay, extra work expectations) that can cause errors and put patients at risk. In addition to pharmacy duties, staff often have to take calls, administer vaccines every 15 min, deal with insurance companies and doctors, and perform rapid Covid and flu tests. AND deal with long lines, or is that just my CVS?

Worried


In a recent Harris poll, 57% of middle-class folks said that higher interest rates were hurting them, and more (44%) said they were stressed about the economy than one year ago (40%). It’s not surprising because their money is going to interest, not goods and services.

But What About This?

HSBC is taking a $500mm hit on Chinese real estate. It missed expectations. But it announced a new buyback program. Investors voted: the stock is down.

The Waiting Game

Will China approve the Broadcom/VMWare deal? Significant revenues are in the country for Broadcom, so they need the approval—and fast before their Nov deadline on the 26th. But China/US tensions (including the recent chip war initiatives) could derail things.