Bitcoin down to $67k overnight from $72k (-~7%). So, for those shorting vol…it’s not low everywhere.
Weak quarterly guidance is cropping Adobe’s shares today (down more then -10%). 1Q beat, but it’s all about the forecast these days. And, yes, there was sufficient mention of AI products on the horizon. The question is when they’ll monetize and how much. Anyone else think the power companies will be the big beneficiary here? Over time will these just be included features? For folks willing to think about all sides, BBG has a story out today “What If the AI Theme Is Actually a Nothingburger?” While our answer is No, we do question where the money will be made.
News flash. When you pay a ton in interest, you don’t feel rich. So, Americans don’t want to be told how good the economy is. They want to feel it. We’re giving you a two-fer for charts today. Let the consequences sink in. Delinquencies are up too.
Mickey D’s had a global tech outage that caused customers unable to order food in many parts of the world. While it was not a cybersecurity event, it certainly caused their IT department to work furiously to fix the problem. Not so fun fact: my class was in a McDonald’s marketing campaign in elementary school. We all sat at tables with food in front of us, yet we weren’t allowed to eat it. Excruciating for kids to simply watch their fries.
OK, maybe not that exciting…but auto theft, alongside more accidents and expensive repairs, are pushing up auto insurance. In the LTM, it’s up almost 21%. If you doubt the thefts point, just look at your local NextDoor. Sounds like there are TikToks showing folks how to steel cars, so it’s prevalent now.
New research shows that wall squats and planks are some of the best exercises for reducing your blood pressure. But with regards to another plank, Kevin Plank, it seems that investors also want to hold the plank. Shares of Under Armour were down roughly -12% when the co announced their fairly new CEO would be replaced by the returning Plank. Downgrades started, probably because Linnartz’s turnaround initiatives aren’t working.
CNBC has a story out today on going to college. Spoiler: it’s still worth it financially, especially if you major in STEM, business, and healthcare. So, study for those SATs and work on those essays, juniors. (SAT is the new black)
WeightWatchers CEO sent a memo to employees in hopes of stemming the tide of concern. The stock is down hard. Analysts are asking about debt concerns. Heck, Oprah even took off and is giving away her stock…maybe she’s trying to get the largest tax break while she can, or is that too skeptical? With all the health insurance companies offering apps and information, will GLP-1 prescriptions through Sequence keep this co alive?
During a client meeting yesterday, I was trying to describe the current global situation and decided we need a new word. Maybe we’ll go with Friend Autarky, or Frautarky. Remember our note on how the US is pressuring other gov’s to pressure their large tech/industrial companies to shun China? Well, today the US is going to shell out more than $6bn to Samsung for greater chipmaking capabilities in Texas. Countries are picking sides like middle school gym class, so are companies creating new roles for geopolitical ambassadors to strike deals? Another story noted that behind the scenes, China is asking its EV makers to buy from local chipmakers. So, it’s going on everywhere.
Citi increased Micron’s price target by 58% to $150. What change in the model did they make?! That’s more like throwing out the model completely.
Folks are still betting on 3 rate cuts this year. With recent inflation and labor data, that is worth questioning. What’s the rush? Sure, I can see them trying to work down their $7.5trn balance sheet…via QT…but rate cuts will just juice the system. Which traders won’t like if inflation increases again.
We’ve got that today. Derivatives tied to stocks/indexes/futures are maturing, so investors either have to roll their positions or get new ones. Roughly $5.3trn are expiring. So, don’t use today’s price action to read intermediate term tea leaves.