On 60 Min yesterday, the Fed’s Powell said the "danger of moving too soon is that the job's not quite done," cementing the fact that there will be cuts—but most likely coming after the March meeting, driving the slide in UST to start the week as US yields climbed higher. Per Bloomberg, markets are still (somehow) pricing in 5 cuts for this year. Wall Street banks from Goldman to Barclays are among those that have pushed back expectations for the timing of the Fed's first rate cut, with the chance of a quarter-point cut March cut fell to almost 10% after Powell's comments... just weeks ago the move was considered a near certainty by investors.
The S&P was up 13 of the last 14 weeks, which hasn’t happened in almost 30 years, per GS.
Someone will be right. Per Schwab, there’s a lot of folks increasing their S&P shorts. So, if they get squeezed too much, they will either double down or buy in and drive the market higher.
Estee Lauder climbed nearly 19% in premarket this morning after announcing plans to cut 3-5% of its workers in a restructuring; cost savings are the new black it seems for corporate America. The beauty company also improved its sales outlook for the fiscal year.
Snap will reduce its workforce by about -10% worldwide, expected to generate pre-tax charges of $55-$75 mm from severance and related costs, most of which will occur in 1Q24.
According to the NY Times, Boeing shares fell as much as -3.5% after the company found MORE mis-drilled holes in its 737 Max jet, of which could delay deliveries even further.
MSFT is doing a deal with Semafor to create news stories with the help of an AI chatbot, per FT. Remember our prior note? The co faces a multibillion-dollar lawsuit from the New York Times already.
Apartment buildings in NYC appear to be going on sale now for almost -50% off. Last year alone, NYC buildings with at least one rent-stabilized apartment sold on average for $203,000 a unit, down -34% since 2019. Inversely, the price of nonregulated apartments rose 23%. Last week, amid concern over real estate exposure, shares of New York Community Bancorp (which holds about $37 billion in apartment loans, half of them backed by rent-regulated units) dropped -38% in a single day.
Israel’s foreign minister warned that it may be too late to find a diplomatic solution to Hezbollah fighters along the country’s northern border with Lebanon. Most likely allies of Israel are trying to find ways to de-escalate the situation.
