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Your Quiver | Monday, May 8, 2023

CIO | Nadine Terman @SolsteinCapital details what she's seeing in global financial markets.

The Consumer

Per our video last week, Tyson cut its annual revenue target by roughly $2-3bn and trimmed its cap ex budget too. Beef, pork, and chicken are struggling—with high costs including animal feed prices, and consumers trading down.

Pac Man

PacWest gobbled up its dividend, telling investors that its business is “sound” as it trims the capital outlay. The S&P Financials index is almost below a pre-GFC peak for the first time in 2 yrs. Over in China, the CSI 300 Financials index popped, with some banks having their biggest one-day gains since the 2015 strong markets, per NoSo.


Buffet said that US economy’s “incredible period” is coming to an end. German industrial product fell the most in a year. Output declined by -3.4% in March, versus an expected -1.5%.

Binance Withdrawals

They’re flowing again for Bitcoin after halts in Asia today and for about 1.5 hours yesterday.


Aside from the debt ceiling talks, the next Fed meeting will be in about 6 weeks, which could be a major catalyst for markets. This week we have CPI numbers on Wednesday, and PPI figures on Thursday, which will certainly be compared to the hot jobs data we received last Friday. Today we’ve got the quarterly report from the Federal Senior Loan Officer Survey at roughly 11am PT, which will tell us (most likely) that credit is tighter. The survey historically has been a good leading indicator of US GDP growth, the unemployment rate, the credit impulse, and high yield default rates. Jan’s survey was bearish. The EZ’s equivalent was bearish.

The Have's and Have Not's

The Russell was down -1.86% in April. Small caps are near year-end 2022 levels. The S&P was up +1.46%. Big Tech has been the major winner.

The Pricing Ceiling

As pointed out in a BBG piece today, if companies keep pricing high, allowing for demand to decrease, it makes the Fed’s job a lot harder. Rines’ “price over volume” is going on at For, Marriott, Southwest, Kimberly-Clark, and every single place I try to order lunch from, it seems. Some of this trend relates to pandemic-fueled initiatives, when supply chains were tight, and labor was scarce. But we’re beyond that now. I’d like my $8 sandwich option back.