GS noted that CTAs will sell stocks over the next week, no matter which way markets go. Momo traders supposedly will sell $10 bn in a rising market, or up to $42 bn in a declining one. In a similar note, Citi expects profit-taking to pressure NASDAQ’s climb, given futures positioning near 3-yr highs.
JPMorgan trimmed its overweight call on UST because of over-excitement for early and aggressive Fed rate cuts and estimates the first cut will be in Jun. GS expects 4 cuts in 2024, starting in Mar. Imagine markets if inflation stayed sticky and high…
The Dow closed above 38,000 for the first time ever. The S&P ended higher than Friday’s record close. The Nasdaq was roughly 4.5% away from its Nov 2021 record close ahead of Tuesday’s open. Does it ever feel good to be at all-time-highs?
Netflix reports after the close today. But they announced a 10-yr $5bn deal with WWE parent TKO Group to bring the co into live sports with WWE Raw.
P&G beat on the bottom line but missed on revenues. How did they overcome the miss? Price hikes drove a 3% year-over-year increase, with gross margin for the q up 520 bps.
China is considering propping up its stock market with a $278 bn rescue package, per Bloomberg, mostly through onshore purchases via HK. Also they may expand a net stock selling ban from major mutual funds to insurers as well. Alibaba’s Jack Ma has been buying depressed shares. Thanks to BTIG for the chart below. They say the ave bounce the last 4 times the HSI was this oversold has been +25%, which wouldn’t be much on the chart.
Bitcoin is down again.
Folks are now thinking that the BOJ will raise rates in April. The yen strengthened. JGB futures fell after Gov Kazuo Ueda said certainty for the outlook is gradually rising. But this week, the central bank is keeping its policy rate and yield-curve-control the same.
India’s stock market capitalization overtook Hong Kong’s for the first time. Higher growth prospects. Check. Policy reform. Check. Capital coming in. Check. Now it’s the 4th largest in the world, per Bloomberg.
Mortgages with 1% down for deposit are a “risk to financial stability,” per the Telegraph.