Per BBG, up days are bigger than down days, for the most part. Ave 0.66% increase in pos sessions and -0.45% drop in negative ones. The ratio of the two (1.5) is the highest skew in favor of bulls YTD since 1995 (random stat provided by BBG).
NVDA and CSCO are working together to deliver equipment for co’s to build their own AI computing infrastructure, in effect trying to expand their market beyond big data-center co’s. On another AI note, Palantir popped +20% because of a bullish AI demand forecast.
Brookfield is the target of new stories this morning. They raised a bunch of dough a few years ago, bought into commercial real estate when prices fell, but were too early. The firm’s property funds spent $7.2bn on office REITS in German, Belgium, and Ireland in late 2021 and early 2022. They’ve defaulted on > $3bn of US commercial mortgages. So, even smart folks do dumb things. But now they want $15bn of your money for a new real estate fund. I guess they are hoping investors will treat them like venture….some funds will be donuts and others will return a lot?
Chinese equities popped on the back of scuttlebutt by BBG that regulators are going to tell Xi how much his market conditions suck. Traders drove the market the most since 2022, as Xi may take action during or around the Chinese holiday season.
DB decided to scrap its prior forecast for a US recession, given earnings beating consensus at “well above average” and a view to lower interest rates in 2024. Citi, though, is standing firm, saying that tech stocks face a risk of a big selloff because of over-positioning, which if it were to occur, would really hurt the US markets. They don’t see any short wagers in NASDAQ 100 futures.
UK retail sales growth slowed to 1.2% y/y for Jan, per KPMG. Versus in the US, consumers are keeping their cash in their wallets.
On Thurs, JPM has a webinar entitled, “Soft landing vs no landing: What if we’re back to ‘high for long’? Well, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to tell you that markets are not expecting that, and it would make traders pretty bummed out, which would hit your equity and bond portfolios. Can you remember back to 2022?
… It’s down.
