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Your Quiver | Tuesday, October 10, 2023

CIO | Nadine Terman @SolsteinCapital details what she's seeing in global financial markets.

Walking it Back

For all the tough language Fed officials have had in the past year, these days they seem to be walking it back. More are arguing that they need to be more cautious with the current tighter financial conditions, per Bloomberg. So, bonds are up (with yields down).

Longer Walk

Across the pond, BoE’s Mann is holding the line—reiterating the call for aggressive policy to tackle inflation, per Bloomberg. Plus, the ECB is signaling that 1-2 more hikes are in the cards if there are more shocks to economy, per CNBC.

China Rumblings


China is thinking about new stimulus via a higher budget deficit this year, to get to their GDP growth target of 5%, per Bloomberg. Also, the gov is probably worried about the continued real estate market challenges. Country Garden says it might not meet all its offshore repayment obligations, per Reuters.

Waku Waku

Japanese equities rallied hard, with the Nikkei up +2.4% (biggest rise YTD) and the Topix up +2.1%.

Thirsty


Well, people might be lowering their food consumption at certain places, per Walmart, because of the popular weight loss drugs, but they don’t seem to be impacting overall sales of drinks or Pepsi’s snacks. $PEP beat and raised. Volumes were down, though–while prices were up. So, pushing prices may not be a lasting strategy. Also, they talked about shrinking portions and making smaller value packs. So, we’re not going crazy, folks. Shrinkflation is everywhere. We’re better off making our own meals.

A Message

Former Walmart CEO Bill Simon is warning about the US consumer pausing purchases. He also noted that the bargains aren’t so good this year. He said that companies use percentages (40% off) versus prices ($199) when deals aren’t as attractive. So, what’s the consumer to do? Maybe wait a bit and let them sweat it out. Perhaps we’ll get a better deal if their early sales aren’t as grand and they’re sitting on inventory. @mylongbow is getting ready for our holiday value gift list recommendations…and figured we’d provide some strategies as well.

In Control

The Supreme Court declined to hear a case challenging the FDA’s authority to reject flavored e-cigs.

Striking, Eh?

Canadian autoworkers are joining their US counterparts against GM. Around 4.3k are now on strike, joining the 9.2k UAW folks striking against GM in the US.

Eventually

Where is everyone avoiding? See below for DB’s answer. Eventually exposures revert.

Santa Claus Rally?

If CTAs jump back in.