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Your Quiver | Thursday, May 18, 2023

CIO | Nadine Terman @SolsteinCapital details what she's seeing in global financial markets.

Walmart Gems

The company beat on 1Q23 top and bottom lines plus increased 2023 guidance. Solid advertising sales and grocery. Another example of consumer preferences right now. If you want a few good laughs this morning, enjoy these gems from comedians Nate Bargatze and Rod Man about Walmart.

TikTok Ban

Montana became the first state to ban the Chinese-owned platform, and we doubt it will be the last. Meta is probably doing a little happy dance this week.

Baba Spin

Their revenue missed this quarter, given the slower recovery in the Chinese economy. But they’re spinning out their $12bn cloud division into a separate public company.

The Cisco Kid

The tyke fell and skinned his knee during earnings, with a big decline in orders that it had previously telegraphed. The beat on top and bottom lines didn’t matter, when everyone was focused on orders.

One Down and JPM to Go

DB is paying $75mm to victims of Epstein, settling a federal lawsuit claiming that the bank enabled and benefitted from his sex trafficking of young women. Your turn, JPM. Under the DB settlement, victims will receive a minimum of $75k and up to $5mm each.

Don't Get Lost in the Technicals

Tomorrow’s double witch expiration was part of the driver of yesterday’s ramp. The options traders caught with a negative gamma portfolio probably had to buy equities when they grinded higher in order to get to a more neutral delta. The S&P 500 closed near 4150, a popular strike price.

Macro Data

Building permits accelerated and housing starts accelerated, so the US economy looks resilient still—and so will inflation. Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 13 were 242k vs an expected 251k. The Philly Fed Biz Outlook for May declined -10.4, but it was better than the expected decline of -20. Don’t get too comfortable, though, because as more investors price assets for a soft landing, the asymmetry continues to the downside—inflation will stay high, and the Fed certainly won’t cut—it may even hike, or at the minimum, it will keep rates high for longer. To that point, traders are now giving 40% odds to a June hike.