In terms of positioning, JPM says that for the yen, shorts are mostly covered, and traders may start building longs if the BOJ raises rates next week. They think Japanese equities could fall at that point as well, given the high positioning. BB doesn’t think a pivot happens until July, though. JPM also notes that traders are NOT leaving gold for bitcoin. Lots of folks buying ETFs and futures in both. Lastly, NOSO notes that commodities are being sucked into the short-vol trade, countering the sector’s typical boom-and-bust history.
China canceled more wheat purchases. They’ve got enough, and demand is not sucking up supply. Importers said stop to roughly 1mm tons of Australian cargoes, per Reuters, after halting shipments from the US and France.
I haven’t finished my coffee and had to ask—what did I just read? Mnuchin wants to buy TikTok? That’s like mixing vanilla ice cream with a Ghost Pepper. No one wants that. Remember the ex-GS, former Energy Secretary? I think all of us were happy when he left the headlines.
Wholesale prices accelerated at a faster clip than expected in Feb. The PPI data, issued today on PI Day (3/14), was up 0.6% m/m—double what was expected. Ex food and energy, core was up 0.3%, vs the expected 0.2%. Retail sales also popped, up 0.6% m/m—but that figure was less than the expected 0.8%. Labor data also was warm. Folks filing for unemployment fore the 1st time was down. Next to SBUX I saw that gas prices were $6.60+ per gallon. Nuts.
Per CNBC, around 48% of US CFOs think we’ll get a soft landing. (What about the other 52%?) Anyway, they’re also giving the Fed a golf clap, which is a major change in opinion. Remember when the Fed could do no right?
Per Axios, inspectors are talking. They report that Boeing overwrote security camera footage of its repair work on the Alaska Airlines 737-9 door plug. So, check your ticket. Make sure you’re not on a problematic Max. They obviously have something to hide. So, now airlines are asking for a price reduction given delays at Boeing. EZ regulators say they’d halt their indirect approval of Boeing’s jet production, if need be. So, the pain train continues for them.
Reuters is flagging that EZ banks’ private credits are worrisome, given default risks. We’re in Japanese banks and non-bank financials for that and other reasons.
BBG has a story on Musk today. Sounds like he microdoses ketamine at work. The story is about folks using drugs at work, which to me equates to a direct phone call to activists and lawyers. So, Board members, check your insurance policies if this is a known-known at your co.
Post pandemic, older folks don’t want to work. Looks like younger folks don’t want to either, on a relative basis.
