Z(Z) Top

The core CPI (ex food and energy) was up only +0.1% m/m, which was the lowest level since Aug 2021. Y/Y it was up 3.3%, so don’t get too excited about lower prices…they are just not increasing as much. So, traders are now expecting a Sep cut by the Fed. Services prices fell for a second month, and shelter increased only 0.2%, helping moderate the figure.

The yen is “en fuego” this morning on the CPI print, as currencies rallied—but the yen by a heck of a lot more, as the crowded short-yen trade is getting unwound and getting Cream-ed.

Fed Chair Powell announced the balance-sheet drawdown has “quite a ways to go,” per Reuters. Sucking liquidity out of a toppy market = a set-up for an investor clash.

Fed Gov Cook acknowledged that soft landings are rare, but then gave a baseline forecast to achieve that outcome, per BBG. So, they’re hoping it’s a Cure for The Clash.

Apple is hoping they’ll get a lot more of those with its AI features, stating they could drive a ~10% increase in iPhone sales this year, per BBG. Axios is out with a story detailing how smartphone makers are focusing on AI features as their big selling point for new devices. The EZ's antitrust regulators agreed to Apple's offer to open up its mobile payments system (tap and pay wallet) free for a decade, per Reuters, so that the co can avoid a fine.

AMZN is rushing out with its Prime Day sales as WMT and TGT got the memo early and created discounting events around same time, per Axios.

Everyone and their mother seems to have read GS’ piece flagging Big Tech is spending too much on AI, per BBG. All that money had better drive massive growth and profits and cash flow…otherwise the stocks will be in dire straights, especially at these multiples.

Delta announced a dire outlook on summer travel. Ticket prices are down because they can’t fill planes (where are those planes? Not the ones I have been on…) Sounds like they added too many planes for the summer—ye ol' excess supply vs demand problem. The stock was down -9% as of around 9am ET. Last mo Southwest also reduced its 2Q24 estimate for rev.

GOOG left HubSpot out to dry yesterday after news broke that the co is abandoning its acquisition efforts, per BBG. Employees, mgmt. and shareholders cannot be happy.

Costco is raising its membership fee by $5 for the 1st time since 2017, per CNBC. It’s an 8% increase as of Sep 1, and 52mm memberships supposedly will be paying more green.

While it’s not exactly Nirvana, Chinese stocks popped overnight Hang Seng +2.06%, Shanghai +1.06%, Shenzhen +1.99%, ChiNext +2.06%. We had this conversation with a potential investor yesterday…it’s hard to predict timing, but it’s the most hated geographic equity place…ripe for a bounce.

Investors are positioning for a July BOJ rate hike, making it one of the last places on Earth to hike.

Has the UK economy finally wrestled the kinks out of it? It grew +0.4% in May m/m, twice the pace expected and the fastest in nearly 1 yr. The pound neared a 1-yr high, and GS is forecasting it could hit $1.30 within weeks.