BOJ Gov Haruhiko Kuroda shocked markets by doubling a cap on 10-year yields (+50 bps versus +25bps), fueling a jump in the yen (+3% vs the USD) and a slide in government bonds. Potential impacts? UBS did a good outline back in Sep. For fixed income, it’s the markets were Japanese investors have th...
Read moreNot to be overshadowed by Wednesday’s Dance (still not sure why this keeps popping up in my ads), Friday’s market dance brought the S&P down -1.1% and below its 50 DMA (3864) for the first time in 5 weeks. The eq volume (17.9bn) was the highest in 6 mo, although the triple witching and index reb...
Read moreA few levels of support for the SPY fell during yesterday’s decline. The 100 DMA fell in the morning, and the 3900 technical level fell mid-day with a low of 3879. Most investors were not hopping in for holiday bargain shopping, probably just taking a stiff drink and hoping that 2023 re-sets soon....
Read moreThe median Fed “Dot Plot” for 2023 increased 50 bps to 5.125%, versus an expected 25bps move upward. The Fed Fund Futures curve didn’t translate the dots in the same fashion. The expected terminal rate if 4.75-5.00%. Investors just don’t buy the Fedspeak when growth is slowing, and inflation...
Read moreThat’s what yesterday’s market felt like here in the US. The S&P failed to stay above its 200 DMA after hitting it in the early trading session. (E-Minis jumped more than 3% on the soft CPI print yesterday, and then derivatives desks saw unwinding into the rally). The magic number seems to be 41...
Read moreLots for the doves to love. US Nov CPI softer for both headline (+0.1%) and core (0.2%) versus expectations for both at 0.3%. Up 7.1% y/y but down from 7.7%. Fuel, energy services, used cars, and airline fares were down. Apparel was only up a bit at 0.2%. Food away from home, which up, was only 0..5...
Read moreEuro Parliament is now investigating a Greek lawmaker/VP as well as a former Italian deputy after seizing a suitcase full of 50 euro notes worth just shy of $800k. Qatar and Morocco were cited as potential sources of the cash. Kind of uncomfortable when Euro govs are trying to buy nat gas from Qatar...
Read moreVanda Research estimates that retail investors lost $350bn this year, with their ave portfolio down -30% YTD2022 versus the S&P at -17%. The group tended to own more high-fliers that crashed and bought dips in the bear market. Case in point, they estimate that the ave self-directed portfolio held ...
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